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History of Forex
The history and evolution of the Foreign Exchange
may be traced back to the early stages of human history. In the early
days the goods were exchanged between individuals and the value of one
good was expressed in terms of other goods. The limitations of this barter
system encouraged traders to use other mediums such as stones, teeth
etc. to determine the value of goods. These mediums soon to be replaced
by precious metals in particular silver and gold thus providing an accepted
way of payment in exchange of goods. It also had the many advantages
such as storage and durability. The introduction of Roman gold coin followed
by the silver one played a key role in the development of the trade and
foreign exchange during the biblical times. Both coins gained a wide
acceptance in Middle East and other parts of the world forming an elementary
international monetary system.
By the middle Ages, increased usage of bills encouraged the foreign exchange
to become a function of international banking.
The evaluation of the foreign exchange as briefly mentioned above
was affected by many historical events. Study of such historical
events is a personal choice. However with the attempts of governments to create a more stable economic
environment for global trading and exchange, the last century witnessed
some measures and events that shaped the current foreign exchange markets.
The Gold Standard, 1816-1933
Throughout
the history, people began to realize the advantages of paper currency
against the exchange of precious metals. Consequently stable governments
eventually adopted paper currency and backed its value with gold reserves.
This led to the introduction of gold standard.
The 'gold standard' used the physical weight of gold as the standard
value for the money and making it directly exchangeable in the form of
the precious metal. In 1816 for instance, the pound sterling was defined
as 123.27 grains of gold on its way to becoming the foremost reserve
currency and was the principal component of the international capital
market. This led to the expression 'as good as gold' when applied to
the Sterling, as the Bank of England at the time gained stability and
prestige as the premier monetary authority.
Before the First World War, most Central banks supported their currencies
with convertibility to gold. Paper money could always be exchanged for
gold. However, for this type of gold exchange, a central bank coverage
backing up the government’s
currency reserves was not necessarily needed. When a group mindset fostered a
disastrous notion of converting back to gold in mass, panic resulted in so-called "Run
on banks”. The combination of a greater supply of paper money without
the gold to cover, led to devastating inflation and political instability.
As economies strengthened, heavy import of gold was required until the
gold reserves reached the required level to back the existing paper money.
Gold import was leading shrinking of money supply, high interest rates
and slow economic activity to the point of recession. Ultimately, prices
of goods had hit bottom, appearing attractive to other nations, which
would rush into buying sprees that injected the economy with gold until
it increased its money supply, and drive down interest rates and recreate
wealth into the economy. Such boom-bust patterns prevailed throughout
the gold standard until the outbreak of World War I interrupted trade
flows and the free movement of gold.
The US dollar adopted the gold standard late in 1879 and became the standard-bearer
replacing the British Pound when Britain and the other European countries
came off the system with the outbreak of World War I in 1914. Eventually,
though, the worsening international depression lead even the dollar off
the gold standard by 1933 marking the period of collapse in international
trade and financial flows prior to World War II.
The Bretton Woods System, 1944-73
Towards the end of World War II (July 1944) with the initiative of US,
45 countries met in a conference held in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire.
The conference aimed to formulate a new international financial framework
in order to prevent the reoccurrence of events such as the 1930s world
depression and ensuring prosperity in the post war period. During the
conference, John Maynard Keynes suggestion for a new world reserve currency
in favor of a system built on the US Dollar was rejected. Instead,
it resulted in a system of fixed exchange rates that reinstated The Gold
Standard partly, fixing the USD at $35.00 per ounce of Gold and fixing
the other main currencies to the dollar, initially intended to be on
a permanent basis. The Bretton Woods system formalized the role of the
US dollar as the new 'global' reserve currency with its value fixed into
gold and the US assuming the responsibility of ensuring convertibility
while other currencies were pegged to the dollar.
The post World War II period saw the British economy and confidence in
ruins with infrastructure bombed, and their currency at a low. On the
other hand, the US with its physical isolation was left relatively unharmed
by war. This then has lead to the dollars rise to prominence becoming
the reserve currency of choice and staple to the international financial
markets
The establishment of the Bretton-Woods Accord is usually thought to have
marked the beginning of foreign exchange. It was made to stabilize the
global economy after World War II. It not only created the concept of
pegging currencies against each other, but also created the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) as well.
The Bretton Woods system came under increasing pressure as national economies
moved in different directions during the 1960’s. A number of realignments
held the system alive for a long time but eventually Bretton Woods collapsed
in the early 1970’s following president Nixon's suspension of the
gold convertibility in August 1971. The dollar was no longer suited as
the sole international currency when it was under severe pressure from
increasing US budget and trade deficits. Up until its failure in 1971,
the Bretton-Woods Accord did manage to stabilize the economies in Europe
and Japan.
The End of Bretton Woods and Floating Exchange
Rates
When Nixon suspended the gold convertibility in 1971, and the US dollar
was no longer convertible into gold the Bretton Woods system finally
went the way of history at the same time growing structural imbalances
among the economies leading to mounting volatility and speculation in
a one-year period, from June 1972 to June 1973. At the time the UK, facing
deficit problems initially floated the Sterling, then devaluating further
on in February of 1973 loosing 11 per cent of its value along with the
Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen. This eventually led to the European
Economic Community floating their own currencies as well.
By 1973, currencies of major industrialized nations became more freely
floating, controlled mainly by the forces of supply and demand which
acted in the foreign exchange market. Prices were floated daily, with
volumes, speed and price volatility all increasing throughout the 1970s,
giving rise to new financial instruments, market deregulation and trade
liberalization.
Smithsonian Agreement and
the European Joint Float
At the core of Bretton Woods problems were deteriorating confidence in
the dollars ability to maintain full convertibility and the unwillingness
of surplus countries to revalue for its adverse impact in external trade.
In 1971 and 1972 two more attempts at free-floating currency against
the U.S. dollar, namely the Smithsonian Agreement and the European Joint
Float were made. The first was just a modification of the Bretton-Woods
accord with allowances for greater fluctuation, while the European one
aimed to reduce dependence of their currencies on the dollar.
After the
failure of each of these agreements, nations were allowed to peg their currencies to freely float, and was actually mandated to do so by 1978
by the IMF. The free-floating system managed to hold out for several
years, but many denominations had failed against the strong currencies.Several
times efforts for reestablishing controlled systems were undertaken with varying
levels of success, the most well known of which Europe's Exchange Rate
Mechanism of the 1990's that eventually lead to monetary union and today's
12 nation Euro. By that time the currency trading opportunities had begun to
be enjoyed by not only those familiar with the Foreign Exchange market, but
to people interested in investing in new markets.
The Introduction of the Euro
The Europeans were already very comfortable with the concept of forex
trading, where much of the rest of the world were still unfamiliar with
the territory. The European Economic Community introduced a new system
of fixed exchange rates in 1979, the European Monetary System. The quest
for currency stability continued in Europe with the 1991 signing of The
Maastricht treaty. This was to not only fix exchange rates but also actually
replace many of them with the Euro in 2002. The euro was the first single-currency
used as legal currency for the member states in the European Union. It
became the first currency able to rival the historical leaders in the
Foreign Exchange market and create the stability that Europe and the
forex market had long desired.
In Asia, the lack of sustainability of fixed foreign exchange rates
has gained new relevance with the events in the latter part of 1997,
where currencies were forced to float. Currency after currency was devalued
against the US dollar. The devaluation of currencies continued to plague
the currency trading markets, and confidence in the open market of forex
trading was not sustained. Leaving other fixed exchange rates in particular
in South America also looking very vulnerable. While commercial companies
have had to face a much more volatile currency environment in recent
years, investors and financial institutions have discovered a new playground.
The size of the FOREX market now dwarfs any other investment market.
The last few decades have seen foreign exchange trading develop into
the world’s
largest global market. Restrictions on capital flows have been removed in most
countries, leaving the market forces free to adjust foreign exchange rates according
to their perceived values. In the 1980s, cross-border capital movements
accelerated with the advent of computers and technology, extending market
continuum through Asian, European and American time zones. Transactions
in foreign exchange rocketed from about $70 billion a day in the 1980s,
to more than $1.5 trillion a day two decades later |
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